The REALITY of CNC Proliferation...

[tuck]

"Comptuter Numeric Control" technology ain't exactly new anymore, folks. In fact, it's rapidly becoming "old hat" as well as affordable by just about anyone that has a few thousand bucks and needs/wants one. (Especially a used one.) The prices for high perfomance machines keeps dropping (relative to the economy), as the demand for the technology stays on the rise. There is, of course, both bad and good in this. The "bad" is that everyone and their brother will have a CNC (flat-bed router system) machine soon enough. The "good" is that the demand for CNC services will continue to rise.

What does this mean? It means one thing...COMPETITION!!! If you were the first guy on your street with a CNC machine say 10, 5, or even 3 years ago, my money says that you ARE NOT NOW! Likely as not, if you are a CNC man from "way back when", you already know that you're NOT the only kid on the block anymore!

This is certainly not to infer that anyone that buys a CNC machine will be successful with it, no more than it is to say that anyone that has been in business for a good while will lose out to all of the newer folks that are "hungrier". I am simply trying to point out that, as time rolls on, we'd all do well to keep a sharp eye over our shoulders for what's coming up behind us, "competition-wise".

I, for one, can forsee the day soon when good CNC machines will be as affordable and plentiful as a top-notch vinyl plotter, or near to it. That's my 2 cents.

[btk]

Mark,

I think that in addition to the cost of machines coming down, I think that also a lack of CNC operators is also keeping adoption rates lower than they could be.
From my experience, most of the people that I speak to that have not yet invested in a CNC machine are less worried about the cost of the machine (as labor cost money too ) but more so concerned about who would program and operate the machine in an efficient consistent manor.
I therefore think that universal CNC adoption will really pickup as the next generation of computer fluent users come out of school who no longer know how to draft/layout by hand and are forced to use CNC.

Brian

[joewino]

My new ShopBot is still out there somewhere but at some point it will be shipped and I'll join the ranks of those that use this "new" technology.

Since I am in the sign business my experience only deals with that part of the economy. Twenty years ago new technology came upon the scene in the form of vinyl plotters. Some folks predicted the end of the signman since anyone could buy a machine and go into business. Here, 20 years later, some of that prediction has come true - anyone can buy a plotter and go into business, but there are still sign folks around who are a busy as ever, doing outstanding signage.

While it is true that our craft has changed, I believe the plotter just improved the way I do business. And I see my new ShopBot in the same way - it will improve how I do business.

What I sell is design, not technology. If my designs (and the craftmanship that produces those designs) are good, it doesn't make much difference how they are done, by hand or machine. My ShopBot can't think. That's my job.

Way back there when I started in the sign business you could get into the business by buying a can of paint, a brush, and picking up a free yard stick at the lumber yard. Doing that didn't make them a sign artist though. The success was not in the brush, it was (and still is) inside the head of the person.

New technology doesn't scare me - it allows me to do my job faster and better. There will always be those folks that produce junk, whether by hand or by technology. I can't stop them. But what I can do is produce the very best that I can, by whatever method is available and the rest will take care ot itself.

Yes, there are other CNC machines in my area, but they are not producing the quality of design that I can, hence, they are not competition.

End of sermon.

[bhalle]

Amen.

[mikejohn]

Raymond
I saw new technology take over my old business, Aerial Survey and mapping.
It took 15 years, though, before old timers like me were superceded! (I got out 3 years ago next month). The technology was there, but it was not automatic. The basics still needed to be in place. Today you need one guy in an organisation that really knows the score, to ensure that the computer side is being done correctly.
I left, I wasn't pushed, because, towards the end I didn't often get into an aircraft (unless the task was super complicated) but sat at a desk sorting out the headaches. The pay was great, but life wasn't as good as making rocking horses.

Simple signs will be made by computer literate Shopbot owners. I do it. But that doesnt make me a designer.
Great signs will always be in the hands of talented designers.
What is needed for CNC, along with design skills, is a full understanding of the software.
Put that all together and you wil give the young 'uns a run for their money.

However, ignore technology advances at your peril!

.............Mike

[jhicks]

Guess its all a matter of perspective so here's my 2 cents. We are blessed with a diverse group of clients ranging from single order to repeat purchases in a wide range of businesses, individuals, and markets. The excellent cabinet makers and some sign shops continually say "next year I am buying a CNC machine" To that I say; Why, when you have me?. The sign shops only have the occasional panel, letters or complete dimensional sign and their core competencies are more retail design, vinyl or ink focused.
Vinyl and printed sign shops are chasing that technology on new printers, flat beds, etc.

Cabinet makers chase new clients for high end work and outsource more every day. Many buy face frames, legs, turnings, counter tops and embelishments from outside sources already. Their core competencies tend to be in sales, design, assembly, finishing, and installation. They want to turn the orders into an invoices as rapidly as they can and rightly so. Same with retail sign shops, builders, and other businesses. We think thats where we fit!
As time marches on they discover that outsourcing is a GOOD thing for them and not a single one has purchased a CNC machine.
In fact they regularily ask me to move ours into their shop. (maybe someday if the synergy is right)
Once one recognizes they don't have the full time work to justify it, the space, personnel and learning curve to run on the occasion they might, they have determined they have better things to do with their people, time, and cash. Developing an in house capacity and competency for a small percentage of your in house demand just isn't a good/smart investment. This is why vertically integrated manufacturing has been abandoned in favor of specialization and outsourcing.
Outsourcing is GOOD because specialization is key to ones focus,investment,expertise,proficiency,response time, supply lines,and overall economic effectiveness. One CNC shop with people and capability can support multiple customers and continue to become highly competent and competitive. One machine in a single use environment better have some repetitive volume or they have an expensive dust collector on the floor consuming valuable resources. Not to mention dust doesn't mix well with vinyl and paint shops without MORE dedicated clean space. Not great rationalization to become an owner and certainly not competition IF they focus on their repetitive parts, or vinyl signs. It is incumbent upon us to differentiate ourselves and help them do the same themselves through our products, services and skills.
We independents just need to stay nimble and flexible serving multiple markets while expanding our level of competency.
That diversity is Key in my opinion to a healthy mix of markets, seasonalities, customers and an overall healthy business model.
Lots of ways to "skin the cat" but I really don't see the competition beating you unless they are simply better at their focus. As it should be in a market driven,capitalistic society. "You have nothing to fear but fear itself"
There are commodity niches and "Rich niches". We perfer the latter, seem to have more fun there, and learn something new every day. What more could one ask for?
bot on!

[gerald_d]

Mike, your profession was "data capture" or "recording" - something that is absolutely natural for computers to do. You weren't trying to create pretty mountains, lakes, beaches, etc. I am not making light of your past profession, but I don't think it compares to the "creative" or "artistic" professions.

[wcsg]

Hey, my post got hijacked!

[mikejohn]

Gerald
It was only technical. It was incidental that photography was involved.
I didn't intend to compare that with design and illustration, quite the reverse.
I guess I must try harder to get what I mean across first time


.........Mike

[earld]

My 2¢:
I cut my teeth in the machine shop at the tail end of the "old school" machinists who ruled the roost. They were incredibly knowledegable and kept most of their experiences to themselves, all the way to the grave. We lost around 36k machinists and tool & die makers a year for a decade, with no one coming in to replace them as college was the popular pipeline.
The thinking about 25 years ago was to replace machinists with cnc machine tools and cheap operators, with a few cnc technicians to keep the machines running. Didn't work. The cnc machinists that did well were previously machinists that had put in their 5 year learning curve. Tool & die shops still had to hire highly skilled tool & die makers to do final fitting and provide the answers.
Now, all the technology and skill is being farmed out to China... Think about that fallout.
I'm seeing the same in the wood industry.
The cnc router is not a replicator, but is a very valuable asset in the right hands. It can range from the computer being a brush and the router being the canvas to a very efficient mass production machine tool, if you can get the details covered that Gerald was posting recently, for a skilled set-up person and semi-skilled operators. And redundent, goof resistant buttons.
But, the cnc in a shop that has crafts-people that have been around the block and know the strengths and weaknesses of the different machines (and hand tools) will do quite well.
As long as their business skills are on par with their trade skills...
EtP